A little encouraging NEWS in the Real Estate Market

As most of us are aware, the housing market recovery to date has been concentrated in the lower-end starter home segment. While the mid-priced market has begun to show signs of life, it is still far below normal activity. The upper-end remains sluggish. Therefore, enlarging the tax credit to include move-up


buyers will add the necessary "juice" to broaden the recovery. The accompanying increased velocity in home sales will mean more economic activity. Also, even though there may be less impact in the overall net inventory (a person sells before buying so it looks as a "wash" on inventory), the months' supply will fall because of rising sales. Increased sales have the added benefit of making HVCC and appraisal issues less problematic since more comparables will be available.

Adding it all up, home sales are now expected to get a boost by roughly 15 percent next year. Existing-home sales are forecast to post 5.7 million units in 2010 (up from 5 million units in 2009). New home sales will also rise, reaching 550,000 (from 400,000). More importantly, inventory will likely fall to a 6-7 months' supply by the middle of next year. That draw down of inventory means that that there are likely to be modest home price gains. Roughly speaking a 2-5 percent price gain is likely in many parts of the country in the next year.

Rising home values will prevent home prices from overcorrecting even further. Home prices have, indeed, been overcorrecting and have led to sizable destruction in middle-class housing-related wealth. By contrast, stock market and financial wealth have experienced spectacular gains in the past nine months.